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Market Report

Friday, 12-Sept-2014

NSE

  • The BSE 30-share barometer resumed higher and moved side-ways in a range of over 100 points before ending at 27,061.04 today -- a rise of 65.17 points, or +0.24 per cent to reclaim 27,000-mark. It had lost almost 324 points in previous three sessions on caution due to worries over early Fed rate hikes, among others.

  • The 50-issue NSE Nifty reclaimed 8,100 level by recovering 19.80 points, or 0.24 per cent, to end at 8,105.50 today. It had shed over 88 points in previous three days. On a weekly basis, Nifty also logged its fifth straight rise as it inched up nearly 19 points.

  • Benchmark share indices snapped their three-day losing streak to end marginally higher as investors adopted a wait-and-watch stance ahead of macro economic data due for release later today, after market hours.

  • Meanwhile, India recorded its heaviest spell of monsoon rains in 2014 in the past week, logging in surplus for the second straight week, raising hopes of a delayed retreat of the four-month season.

  • After market hours: Easing prices of vegetables, cereals and petroleum products brought down retail inflation marginally to 7.8 per cent in August 2014. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based or retail inflation stood at 7.96 per cent in July 2014. In August 2013, retail inflation was at 9.52 per cent.

  • After market hours: The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose 0.5% in July 2014, versus 3.4% in June. This is the slowest in four months. Although July industrial growth numbers are a dampener, indicators for August suggest this could be a blip. Next month's number will likely be on a higher side.

  • The Reserve Bank will unveil its fourth bi-monthly monetary policy statement on September 30, 2014. In its last policy statement in August, RBI had kept key interest rates unchanged--third time in row -- in view of the inflationary expectations and uncertain monsoon conditions. Declining crude and vegetables prices will provide relief with a cut in diesel prices on the cards. However, most experts still expect the RBI to hold interest rates when it reviews monetary policy on September 30. Retail inflation is still close to RBI's March 2015 target of 8 per cent.

  • India is firmly in a multi-year structural bull market, say analysts, adding that we are in the second stage of the bull run. As per a Dow theory, there are three phases of a bull market. The first stage of a bull market is referred to as the accumulation phase, which is the start of the upward trend. The second phase starts when informed investors enter the market and this is known as 'Public Participation Phase'. The last stage in the upward trend, the excess phase, in which smart money starts to scale back its positions. The important thing to note in this phase is the fact that the momentum is not that strong and early signs of primary downtrend become visible. The last bull market started back in 2003 April and Sensex rallied from a low of 2904 to 21206, returning almost 680 per cent. This bull market started in August 2013 from levels around 17,448 and the target is 45,000-50,000 levels by 2016-end, they added.

NIFTY 3-Month

(Data/Charts courtesy NSEI/Yahoo!/iCharts/The Economic Times)